Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

[Andy]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

Wednesday...

WEDNESDAY AUGUST 9, 9:00 PM


Shalom from Jerusalem,



I am very sorry to announce that this will be my last daily war update, at least for the time being. The reason is explained below. I will try to send out additional updates if the situation dramatically deteriorates, such as if we head into a direct war with Syria, as is increasingly possible with Israeli military operations due to be significantly expanded in southern Lebanon. Thanks again to the many subscribers who have written to express your appreciation for these updates.



With extremist Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah addressing the world yet again this evening—issuing his usual anti-Israel and anti-American diatribes as if he was Osama Bin Laden, and naming his hard-line terms for ending the escalating conflict as if he were the elected leader of Lebanon, while threatening any Lebanese groups that dare to question his apparent supremacy—the Israeli Security Cabinet has voted nine to three (the three votes were all abstentions) to dramatically widen the ground offensive against the Syrian and Iranian–backed Hizbullah militia. The ministers took seven hours to arrive at their fateful decision. This came as the extremist jihad force continued to blitz Israeli cities and towns today from southern Lebanon. Army leaders—who are known to have recommended the much larger ground offensive from the start of the conflict four weeks ago today—say that beefed up IDF forces will now fight their way towards the Litani River, some 18 to 20 miles north of the Israeli border in most places. The main goal will be to completely clear the area of Hizbullah fighters and rocket launchers.



Analysts say the expanded IDF operation, which will undoubtedly involve heavy clashes and many casualties on both sides, may take at least one month to accomplish. How the United States, France and other western powers will react to the belated massive military action is not yet known. Left-wing Israeli politicians are already strongly criticizing the cabinet decision. It is certain that Hizbullah, the Lebanese government, Syria and Iran will respond fiercely to the expanded action, along with the rest of the already agitated Muslim world, even if many in the Lebanese government and nation are actually glad that Israel is finally taking the tough action that many expected, and actually wanted, from the start of the conflict. Late reports say the offensive will not begin right away, but sometime before the end of this week. But other reports say some IDF forces have already been air dropped north of the Litani River. All this comes as attempts to arrive at a ceasefire resolution falter at the United Nations in New York, mainly due to Lebanese objections to certain provisions proposed by the US and France earlier this week.



While the Israeli Security Cabinet was debating the army’s desire to significantly expand the ground operation, fierce fighting raged in many areas. Unconfirmed foreign media reports say that at least 11 IDF soldiers have been killed so far in today’s intense clashes, and many more wounded. This comes after five soldiers perished on Tuesday. Meanwhile Hizbullah fired one its powerful longer-range Syrian-supplied Fajr rockets in the direction of Tel Aviv, but it was reportedly intercepted and shot down by Israeli missiles, landing harmlessly in the city of Haifa. Footage of the downed missile is being shown on Israeli TV tonight. Fajr rockets were also fired at the Israeli town of Beit Shean, located in the northern Jordan Valley due south of Tiberius, and also at Palestinian Authority-controlled territory near Jenin in northern Samaria. Miraculously, no one was hurt in the powerful strikes, which created large craters in open spaces.



Over 60 smaller rockets also struck the decimated town of Kiryat Shmona so far today, and dozens others exploded in Ma’alot, Akko, the Golan Heights and several other locations, injuring a number of civilians and setting more homes, cars and forests on fire. In anticipation of a much more ferocious ground battle just ahead, thousands of northern border Israeli residents are currently being evacuated at government expense, many of them to tent camps being set up in the center of the country. Up until now, the estimated 300,000 northern residents who have fled the daily rocket barrages have done so at their own expense, leaving many poorer Israelis behind.



SUSPENDED UPDATES



As stated above, I must suspend these daily war updates, at least for the time being. The reason is a sad one for me personally. After living over half of my life in the land of Israel (I calculated that I officially passed the halfway mark last month), and after having possessed government-issued press credentials and a working visa since 1982, I have been informed by the press office this week—in the midst of a war—that my credentials will not be renewed. The reason is because of an Interior Ministry ruling last year that foreign journalists must fall under the general regulations for all foreign workers, such as the many Thai and Chinese agricultural laborers here in the land, along with thousands of Pilipino maids and caregivers, Romanian construction workers, etc. The law officially limits such people to a five year stay here in the land. Since I have lived and worked in Israel for nearly 26 years, I am obviously a bit over that time limit!



However, I am aware of the fact that several dozen exceptions have been made to this recently imposed journalistic limit. I am hoping and praying that I can be included in that number, but it is already taking extra efforts on my part to help make that happen. The fact is that the press office is only dimly aware, if at all, of the extensive journalistic work that I actually do, and not at all about my international speaking tours which are directly connected to my work here. I am not accustomed to going around taking about such matters. But I now feel compelled to make them aware of the scope of my activities, and so am in the process of asking specific media and other Israeli and overseas contacts for references and information on my overall work. Many have already kindly complied (with one prominent Jerusalem-based American Christian journalist referring to me as the “dean” of local Christian journalists, which I greatly appreciated, even if it made me feel a bit old!). Since this necessary process is already consuming much of my time, it seems prudent to suspend sending out these daily updates for the time being. Unlike the IDF, I simply do not have the time or energy to battle on two fronts at the same time.



Again, I deeply appreciate the many hundreds of notes of appreciation for these updates sent by many of you in recent weeks. I will continue to write and send out my monthly news and analysis report for the time being, along with my periodic World Net Daily commentaries, and the occasional war update as the situation demands it and as time permits. Thanks for your prayers on this matter, and of course also for the overall situation here in the turbulent Middle East.



************************************************** ************************************************** **************************

DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived in Israel since 1980. His new DVD, titled “FOR ZIONS’S SAKE—REPORTING FROM THE LAND OF THE BIBLE,” is now available on both PAL and NTCS versions. Details are posted at his web site, www.ddolan.com

HOLY WAR FOR THE PROMISED LAND (Broadman & Holman), his latest book, is an overview of the history of the Israel and of the bitter Arab-Israeli conflict that rages there, plus some autobiographical details about the author’s experiences living in the land since 1980. It especially examines the important role that militant Islam plays in the conflict.

ISRAEL IN CRISIS: WHAT LIES AHEAD? (Baker/Revell), which examines the political and biblical prospects for a regional attack upon Israel, settlement in the disputed territories, and related topics, is also available for purchase, along with an updated edition of his end-time novel, THE END OF DAYS (21st Century Press).
You may order these books at a special discount price by visiting his web site at www.ddolan.com, or by phoning 888-890-6938 toll free in North America, or by e mail at: resources@yourisraelconnection.org

TO RECEIVE THESE FREE ISRAEL UPDATES DIRECTLY, FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS BELOW. YOU WILL ONLY RECEIVE DAVID DOLAN'S UPDATE AND ANALYSIS INFORMATION FROM THIS ADDRESS. THE LIST WILL NOT BE TRADED OR SOLD.

[Glorify Him]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

While I am glad to hear from David, I am very bummed out that his press credentials are not going to be extended. Go figure that...especially since Israel should understand that reports like his that go to evangelical Christians are in to the benefit of the country.

[Andy]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

SURPRISE!!! Just got an update from David! ping:

SUNDAY AUGUST 13, 6:00 PM


Despite the fact that both the Israeli and Lebanese governments have formally agreed to accept Friday’s UN ceasefire resolution 1701 beginning at 8:00 AM local time Monday morning, security analysts are warning that intense fighting is likely to continue for some time in south Lebanon following Saturday’s fierce Arab-Israeli ground clashes—the worst since the 1973 Yom Kippur war. Late word says the Lebanese cabinet has just postponed a meeting to discuss implementing the resolution amid growing Hizbullah opposition to the international ceasefire call.



A massive barrage of Hizbullah rockets—over 215 by 6:00 PM—has landed all across northern Israel today, including in the port city of Haifa where several people were seriously wounded. Widespread property damage is reported in many places. Other civilians have been wounded near Kiryat Shmona, where nearly 1000 rockets have landed since mid-July. Earlier today, yet another Arab Israeli—a 70 year old man—was killed when Syrian-supplied missiles struck the western Galilee, wounding nine other civilians. This came as IDF Air Force jets and warships once again bombed suspected Hizbullah targets in southern Beirut and other locations.



The Israeli cabinet endorsed the UN ceasefire call early this afternoon just as funerals were beginning for many of the 24 IDF soldiers killed during bloody clashes on Saturday—the highest one day casualty toll since the 1973 war. The bodies of five of the dead have reportedly not yet been recovered after their helicopter was shot down by heavily armed Hizbullah militia fighters north of the Litani River. Heavy fighting today is believed to be taking more lives, with Hizbullah claiming to have destroyed several more IDF tanks. Scores have been wounded in the battles, over a dozen critically. Army officers say they will need several more days to cleanse the area south of the Litani River of Hizbullah fighters, guaranteeing more ground clashes for at least the rest of this week, despite the UN ceasefire time line.



With Shiite Lebanese cabinet ministers reportedly expressing strong reservations over several provisions of the UN ceasefire resolution, especially its implied restriction on future Hizbullah activities in south Lebanon, many Israeli analysts are expressing strong doubts that the ceasefire will hold. They note that Israel is allowed to respond to any overtly offensive attacks, which they say will surely occur as Iran eggs on its surrogate force to carry on with the conflict, especially now that tens of thousands of IDF soldiers are further away from their homeland than ever before in the conflict. Indicating that it intends to foment further trouble in the region, Iran today termed the UN resolution a “defeat for the Zionist entity,” particularly denouncing the provision that effectively calls for Hizbullah fighters to be disarmed.



Israeli officials have warned that they will consider any Syrian attempt to rearm the rogue Shiite force as a violation of the UN resolution, and will attack such efforts wherever they occur. An unnamed senior IDF leader told the Haaretz newspaper yesterday that Syria continues to rearm Hizbullah forces with anti-tank missiles and longer range rockets, despite IDF efforts to stop the flow. This comes as IDF forces continue to be significantly beefed up on the extremely tense Golan Heights, as Syrian troops carry out operations to clear landmines from their side of the disputed border—which many fear is another indication that Iran is prodding its main Arab ally to open up a new front in the war. Military analysts worry that the Syrians might try to sweep down into the Upper Galilee’s Hula Valley in an attempt to cut off IDF forces and communities north and west of the fertile valley.



WAR AND PEACE?


The atmosphere in Israel this evening is surreal, to say the least. The fact that the heaviest fighting of the 33 day war came just after Israeli leaders indicated on Friday evening that they would accept the UN ceasefire call has left many people reeling throughout the country.



I attended a dinner at a (nearly empty) Jerusalem restaurant last night with over a dozen Israeli friends, along with a Beverly Hills SWAT team leader who is a Christian friend of mine who said he came here last week to show his support for Israel during this ongoing conflict. The gathering included a family from Haifa that are here seeking shelter from the daily missile barrage up north. All the Israelis agreed that the massive ground operation to clear out Hizbullah forces from Israel’s former Security Zone should have been launched much earlier in the war, when it could have been completed before UN limits went into effect.



The unanimous comments came amid mounting Israeli public and media criticism of both the military and political leadership’s handling of the war, with several politicians and analysts angrily sparring on Israel television last evening, despite the major fighting going on just across the northern border. The mounting criticism might account for the seemingly defensive tone taken by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni at a press conference this afternoon, where she explained the government’s decision to accept the UN ceasefire, saying it was very much in Israel’s favor despite the fact that the return of the two abducted IDF soldiers that sparked the conflict on July 12th was not mentioned in the body of the UN resolution. She faced sharp questioning about the resolution from several members of the Israeli press.



Despite the fact that heavy fighting continues today, many Israeli military analysts are charging that the IDF leadership relied too heavily on air strikes during the opening weeks of the war, and over-focused the bombings north of the main area of Hizbullah rocket activity in southern Lebanon, which gave the world community a powerful excuse to charge Israel with using excessive force. Meanwhile the political echelon is said by many to have hesitated far too long in giving the order to move massive ground forces into the battle for various reasons. All this points to a very acrimonious debate when the fighting finally ends, such as occurred after the Yom Kippur conflict.



PERSONAL NOTE: Thanks again for the many who have written to express gratitude for my updates, despite my announced pause to work on matters connected to my expiring journalist visa, which continues. I have had several offers of help from well-placed Israelis who are aware of my overall work here in Israel, as well as my travels abroad, and also from some prominent Christian and media leaders around the globe. Thanks to all who are praying for a positive resolution of this problem.



************************************************** ************************************************** **************************

DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived in Israel since 1980. His new DVD, titled “FOR ZIONS’S SAKE—REPORTING FROM THE LAND OF THE BIBLE,” is now available on both PAL and NTCS versions. Details are posted at his web site, www.ddolan.com

HOLY WAR FOR THE PROMISED LAND (Broadman & Holman), his latest book, is an overview of the history of the Israel and of the bitter Arab-Israeli conflict that rages there, plus some autobiographical details about the author’s experiences living in the land since 1980. It especially examines the important role that militant Islam plays in the conflict.

ISRAEL IN CRISIS: WHAT LIES AHEAD? (Baker/Revell), which examines the political and biblical prospects for a regional attack upon Israel, settlement in the disputed territories, and related topics, is also available for purchase, along with an updated edition of his end-time novel, THE END OF DAYS (21st Century Press).
You may order these books at a special discount price by visiting his web site at www.ddolan.com, or by phoning 888-890-6938 toll free in North America, or by e mail at: resources@yourisraelconnection.org

TO RECEIVE THESE FREE ISRAEL UPDATES DIRECTLY, FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS BELOW. YOU WILL ONLY RECEIVE DAVID DOLAN'S UPDATE AND ANALYSIS INFORMATION FROM THIS ADDRESS. THE LIST WILL NOT BE TRADED OR SOLD.

TO SUBSCRIBE (or to unsubscribe), GO TO his web site, www.ddolan.com or to: http://www.ddolan.com/subscribe.asp

[Glorify Him]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

ping: So glad to see that David is okay! What a pleasant surprise to see his letter!

[Andy]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

Monday...

MONDAY AUGUST 14, 8:00 PM



Shalom from Jerusalem,



Residents of northern Israel and southern Lebanon are breathing a huge sigh of relief this evening as the UN-mandated ceasefire has mostly held so far today. However Israeli military analysts continue to warn that the military timeout that ended nearly five weeks of intense warfare may be very short lived indeed, as the multi-religious Lebanese government is finally forced to deal with a monumental problem it failed to confront when IDF forces left southern Lebanon six years ago—the illegal rule of a rogue militia over the southern third and east of its country, founded and sustained by two countries far larger and more powerful than tiny Lebanon, Syria and Iran.



Expectations that the estimated 70,000 man Lebanese army, with its substantial Shiite component estimated to be around 40%, will actually be able, or even willing, to take on the militant Hizbullah militia are fairly low here in Jerusalem, even with the promised help of a beefed up UN force. That foreign “peacekeeping” soldiers will feel secure enough to even move into the area south of the Litani River as IDF forces pull back is widely questioned here, given how Hizbullah succeeded in intimidating other UN forces in the past. Therefore many analysts expect that after a brief lull in the fighting, which will unfortunately allow Hizbullah fighters to rest and regroup, the conflict will begin again, including more rocket attacks upon northern Israel. This possibility was hinted at by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert during a Knesset speech today, who pointed out that even though Hizbullah had been “dealt a harsh blow” by the IDF, the 34 day war was really only one chapter in the much greater struggle to resist Iran’s openly stated goal to annihilate the world’s only Jewish state. He also acknowledged that there had been “shortcomings” in the way the government handled the conflict, which many Israeli opposition politicians consider an understatement.



The likelihood of further fighting was also acknowledged by opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu, who told his Knesset colleagues that the time had not yet arrived to publicly question the government’s handling of the war, which took the lives of 115 IDF soldiers (seven of them only yesterday), along with over 40 civilians, and seriously wounded over 1,000 Israeli soldiers and civilians. Still, the Likud leader did note that the government’s main self-declared goals of crushing the Shiite militia, killing its populist leader, and stopping the possibility of future Hizbullah rocket attacks upon Israeli civilian centers had apparently not been achieved. In fact, some military analysts speaking on Israel radio stations and quoted in national newspapers say the IDF failure to halt daily rocket barrages upon many Israeli cities and towns, including the third largest urban center, Haifa, could embolden Syria and Iran to launch their own massive missile attacks upon Israel in the not too distant future. This possibility becomes all the more ominous given that Syria is known to possess a large chemical weapons capability, while Iran continues to develop its nuclear program.



Some security analysts say they expect Syria to become directly involved in any second round of fighting. They noted that around 30 Syrian tanks moved into the UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Golan Heights in the past two days—the first time they have done so since the end of the 1973 Yom Kippur war. Although this may only be a defensive move, it is said to be very significant nonetheless. Reports in the Haaretz newspaper today say that dozens of Syrian trucks are positioned just across the international border with Lebanon, loaded with fresh arms supplies for Syria’s proxy Hizbullah fighters, probably including more rockets that can strike Israeli territory. Other reports say hundreds of Iranian “volunteers” (which are thought to be mostly highly trained elite Republican Guard soldiers and commanders) are waiting to cross the border as well.



As everyone waits to see if and when the conflict may resume, Israeli attention is also focused tonight on the deteriorating condition of former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, said to be slipping towards death by his doctors. As I noted last month, his passing is expected to bring many world leaders to Jerusalem for a state funeral—which will hopefully not take place in the midst of renewed fighting in Lebanon. However it is entirely possible that Syria and Iran might see such a gathering of mainly Western leaders as an opportunity to cause further trouble in the north, reinforcing their contention before Arab audiences that Israel is a foreign, Western implant that must be uprooted from the mainly Muslim Middle East.



I will be giving an assessment of the Israel-Hizbullah war today on the Moody Broadcasting network’s “Prime Time America” program, heard on several hundred radio stations throughout the United States. The interview will air at 6:00 PM EST, which is 3:00 PM PST, or 21:00 GMT. If the program is not broadcast in your area, you can listen at that time via the internet by going to www.mbn.org



************************************************** ************************************************** **************************

DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived in Israel since 1980. His new DVD, titled “FOR ZIONS’S SAKE—REPORTING FROM THE LAND OF THE BIBLE,” is now available on both PAL and NTCS versions. Details are posted at his web site, www.ddolan.com

HOLY WAR FOR THE PROMISED LAND (Broadman & Holman), his latest book, is an overview of the history of the Israel and of the bitter Arab-Israeli conflict that rages there, plus some autobiographical details about the author’s experiences living in the land since 1980. It especially examines the important role that militant Islam plays in the conflict.

ISRAEL IN CRISIS: WHAT LIES AHEAD? (Baker/Revell), which examines the political and biblical prospects for a regional attack upon Israel, settlement in the disputed territories, and related topics, is also available for purchase, along with an updated edition of his end-time novel, THE END OF DAYS (21st Century Press).
You may order these books at a special discount price by visiting his web site at www.ddolan.com, or by phoning 888-890-6938 toll free in North America, or by e mail at: resources@yourisraelconnection.org

TO RECEIVE THESE FREE ISRAEL UPDATES DIRECTLY, FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS BELOW. YOU WILL ONLY RECEIVE DAVID DOLAN'S UPDATE AND ANALYSIS INFORMATION FROM THIS ADDRESS. THE LIST WILL NOT BE TRADED OR SOLD.

TO SUBSCRIBE (or to unsubscribe), GO TO his web site, www.ddolan.com or to: http://www.ddolan.com/subscribe.asp

[Andy]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

Thursday - this is good, as usual.

THURSDAY AUGUST 17: 6:30 PM

Shalom from Jerusalem.

Below is my latest commentary for the World Net Daily web site, to be published soon. In it I take a look at the important question of who won the 34 day war between Israeli and Hizbullah forces, and especially why Israeli political and military leaders seemed to wage the war in a manner that many here considered half-hearted at best—an issue, among others, that will be examined by a special committee set up today by Defense Minister Amir Peretz.

My commentary comes after the Lebanese government made clear earlier today that it will not even attempt to disarm the rogue Shiite militia, which is a major violation of the UN ceasefire mandate. Despite this, IDF forces continue to slowly evacuate south Lebanon as Lebanese army units entered the area today for the first time since Yasser Arafat took over the border zone and set up a mini-state to attack northern Israel in the 1970s. The Lebanese government’s refusal to upset the country’s delicate religious and ethnic balance by disarming the illegal militia—even though it formally accepted the UN ceasefire resolution to do so earlier this week—could easily halt efforts to establish a viable United Nations force in the region led by France, which is now balking at sending its men into harms way, as it did with disastrous results in the early 1980s. This may force Israel to freeze its troop pullback, setting the stage for further clashes with Hizbullah fighters in the coming weeks.

All this comes as Defense Minister Peretz revealed today that IDF military commanders played down the Hizbullah threat when briefing him after he came into office last Spring. As some of my readers can testify, it is a shame that the Labor party leader wasn’t in one of my international audiences then, when I was detailing that very threat, and explaining why it would probably have to be dealt with very soon.

One technical note: I have used the WND spelling for the Shiite militia below instead of the usual spelling that I employ, which is shared by the Jerusalem Post and other media outlets. The fact is the name is in Arabic, and so any English spelling is merely a rendering. This problem often crops up with Hebrew names and words as well.

A phone interview about the conflict that I conducted with New Zealand’s Shine television network has been airing in that lovely country today. It will also be repeated on Friday afternoon at 1:30 PM on the Shine Nzone FOCUS program.

************************************************** ******************************************

HOW DO YOU SOLVE A PROBLEM NAMED NASRALLAH?
By David Dolan

The international media has been abuzz with the burning question of the hour—who won the 34 day Israel-Hezbollah showdown? Most analysts seem to agree that the outcome was a draw at best. Opinion polls show that most Israelis subscribe to that conclusion as well.

Israel clearly decimated the dug in Shiite militia in the southern third of Lebanon, with the destruction of an estimated 20 Hezbollah border outposts and dozens of bunkers and weapons dumps in the vicinity, and the killing of hundreds of jihad fighters. Even if shadow Lebanese “president” Sheik Hassan Nasrallah succeeds in deflecting the Lebanese Army’s UN-mandated disarming of his blood-stained warriors, as already seems apparent, Hezbollah forces will probably never again openly operate as a virtual army along Israel’s northern border. The Israeli public and government, if not the international community, will simply not tolerate it.

Apart from that significant military achievement—which took much longer to accomplish due to the Israeli government’s highly criticized delay in unleashing sufficient ground forces to make it happen—Israel clearly fell short of the rest of its declared goals in the conflict. The two Israeli soldiers whose kidnapping sparked the conflict have not been set free, nor has any news of their condition even been received in Jerusalem. The Hezbollah missile threat has not been eliminated. The rogue militia pounded the northern third of Israel with Syrian and Iranian-made rockets until the very hour that the UN-mandated ceasefire went into effect on August 14, firing the highest daily total of the war just one day before. As in the opening stage of the conflict, Israel’s third largest urban center, Haifa, was among the targets struck.

Another Israeli goal, voiced unofficially by several cabinet ministers at the outset of the confrontation, was also not achieved—silencing Sheik Nasrallah for good. Instead, the turbaned Shiite holy man cum politician, virtually unknown to most of the world in early July, has emerged as the new Nasser, if not the new Saladin, for the millions of Muslims around the globe who loathe the “infidel Zionist entity” with extreme passion.

Many analysts maintain that Israel’s image as a regional superpower, and thus her critical deterrence capability against much larger neighboring enemies, has been weakened as a result of the war. It was already badly eroded during the 1991 Gulf War when George Bush Sr. held back then Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir from responding to unprovoked nightly Scud attacks from Iraq. Israel’s tough image suffered further damage earlier this decade when it took several years to bring Palestinian suicide attacks under relative control.

Israeli leaders had consistently warned that Damascus, as well as Beirut, would be held directly accountable for any major Hezbollah cross border assaults, since it was Syria that helped arm the radical group and had earlier prevented its Lebanese puppet government from disarming the militia after Israeli forces evacuated south Lebanon in May 2000. However just hours after Hezbollah forces violated the international border (as they had several times before) to kidnap and kill IDF soldiers on July 14, Israeli officials announced that Damascus would not pay a direct price after all. No wonder Syrian strongman Basher Assad crowed after the ceasefire went into effect that the war had been won by his country’s proxy fighters.

Still, it has to be kept in mind that Syria hardly stands alone in the region. The Baathist police state regime is heavily backed by a new emerging regional superpower, Iran, which boasts it now possesses long-range missiles that can strike every part of the Jewish State, possibly with nuclear warheads in the not too distant future. Syria too has such missiles, and stockpiles of VX nerve gas to boot. But the fact is that most of Assad’s arsenal has not come from Iran, but was supplied by the former Soviet Union—a worldwide megapower in its day.

The ironclad Soviet-Syrian alliance did not keep Menachem Begin’s government from engaging Syrian forces in Lebanon in 1982, so why would the Damascus-Tehran axis do that today? The reason is fairly simple, if chilling. The mighty Communist giant was not thought likely to risk an all out nuclear holocaust with Israel’s main international supporter, the United States. Therefore, then Defense Minister Ariel Sharon felt he could fairly safely take on the MIG-based Syrian air force with little risk to Israel’s future existence. But the Shiite fascist-fanatics that rule Iran are assessed to be far more likely to disregard all rational logic by, for instance, attacking Israel’s nuclear reactor in Dimona, as they have repeatedly threatened to do—even if this would probably provoke an Israeli nuclear strike in return.

I warned in my first book (published under the title Holy War for the Promised Land as Saddam’s Scuds were pummeling Israel in early 1991), that militant Islam would prove a far harder enemy for Israel and the West to tackle than Communism, which was then crumbling in Moscow as it already had in Warsaw. I noted that while Soviet-style Communism had many characteristics of a religion, such as “prophets and saints” like Lenin and Marx and an ideology regarded as Final Truth by many adherents, it never actually claimed to be divinely revealed. Thus, if it was failing to deliver its promised free lunch, as it was, it could be discarded relatively easily by political leaders.

In stark contrast, Islam’s founder is hailed by over one billion Muslims around the globe as the “seal of the prophets” who delivered a sacred book to mankind that is regarded as an exact copy of the original in heaven. I pointed out that Arab Muslim Mideast leaders—kinsman of Muhammad who are ruling in the cradle of his religion—could hardly ignore or toss aside the faith held dear by most of their people.

And so tiny Israel is confronted with a huge dilemma, along with Lebanese Christian officials, the United States and indeed the entire Western world, whether they like it or not: How do “infidels” fight highly motivated jihad combatants like Hezbollah and Hamas, and indeed even Al Qaida, without igniting the Muslim masses around the world? This is probably the ultimate issue that Israeli leaders were grappling with as they hesitatingly waged war against a relatively small militia group in neighboring Lebanon during the hot summer of 2006.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived and worked in Israel since 1980.

HOLY WAR FOR THE PROMISED LAND (Broadman & Holman), his latest book, is an overview of the history of the Israel and of the bitter Arab-Israeli conflict that rages there, plus some autobiographical details about the author’s experiences living in the land since 1980. It especially examines the important role that militant Islam plays in the conflict.
ISRAEL IN CRISIS: WHAT LIES AHEAD? (Baker/Revell), which examines the political and biblical prospects for a regional attack upon Israel, settlement in the disputed territories, and related topics, is also available for purchase, along with an updated edition of his popular end-time novel, THE END OF DAYS (21st Century Press).
You may order these books at a special discount price by visiting his web site at www.ddolan.com, or by phoning toll free 888-890-6938 in North America, or by e mail at: resources@yourisraelconnection.org

DOLAN'S NEW DVD, "FOR ZION'S SAKE" is now available for purchase. Click the title under "BOOKSTORE" for more details.

TO RECEIVE THESE FREE ISRAEL UPDATES DIRECTLY, FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS BELOW. YOU WILL ONLY RECEIVE DAVID DOLAN'S UPDATE AND ANALYSIS INFORMATION FROM THIS ADDRESS. THE LIST WILL NOT BE TRADED OR SOLD.

TO SUBSCRIBE, go to: http://www.ddolan.com/subscribe.asp

[Guest]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

It's hard not to cry when I read these updates from Mr. Dolan.

[Glorify Him]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

He pegged that right on the nail head, imho.

[Guest]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

"And so tiny Israel is confronted with a huge dilemma, along with Lebanese Christian officials, the United States and indeed the entire Western world, whether they like it or not: How do “infidels” fight highly motivated jihad combatants like Hezbollah and Hamas, and indeed even Al Qaida, without igniting the Muslim masses around the world? This is probably the ultimate issue that Israeli leaders were grappling with as they hesitatingly waged war against a relatively small militia group in neighboring Lebanon during the hot summer of 2006."

He asks, but does not attempt to answer, the most salient question of our day and, by the way, the title of his article.

[Andy]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

MIDEAST IN BOIL" was the subject of today's email!

AUGUST 21, 5:30 PM



With tens of thousands of Israeli soldiers still stationed in southern Lebanon, and with senior army leaders warning that fighting with Hizbullah forces could resume at any time (possibly assisted by Lebanese army units now being deployed in south Lebanon), fierce dissent continues to mount in Israel over how government and military leaders have handled the war so far in Lebanon. At a tense meeting yesterday in the coastal town of Hadera, which was struck by Hizbullah rockets during the 34 day conflict, hundreds of officers and servicemen from the elite Alexandroni brigade hurled charges of ineptitude against IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz. One reserve solider held up a banner declaring “YOU PREVENTED US FROM WINNING.” Military analysts said it was it was the first time in Israel’s modern history that an entire reserve brigade had staged such a protest against senior IDF commanders. This came as retiring General Yossi Heiman, who commanded the paratroopers and infantry units in the Lebanon conflict, publicly stated that military leaders were “guilty of the sin of arrogance” in their conduct of the war.



On the political front, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert continues his attempts at damage control over his handling of the war. This comes as dozens of members of the Alexandroni brigade marched to Jerusalem today to stage a protest outside of his office, demanding his immediate resignation. During a tour today of areas heavily damaged in the north of Israel during the nearly five week daily rocket barrage, Olmert said that previous governments (meaning Ariel Sharon’s) knew about the dangers lurking in the north, but did nothing about it. “We knew what Iran and Syria were doing in arming Hizbullah, but we acted as if we didn’t know,” he said. Many of Olmert’s critics say he likewise did not adequately deal with the core issue that he mentioned, Syrian frontline support for Hizbullah, backed by Iran.



The besieged Premier was pressured at Sunday’s cabinet meeting to consider appointing an official State Commission of Enquiry to examine the conduct of the war, which would have legal powers to subpoena witnesses and bring formal legal charges against government and military leaders if deemed necessary. So far Olmert has only agreed to the establishment of a lesser panel headed by one of his political cronies, former army general Amnon Liptkin-Shahak, which convened for the first time on Sunday. Meanwhile a move to replace Defense Minister Amir Peretz as Labor party leader is gaining steam, led by two disgruntled Labor Knesset members.



While the Israeli political pot continues to boil, IDF commanders are warning that fresh fighting could erupt in the coming months, or even weeks, due to stepped up Syrian and Iranian attempts to rearm their Lebanese Shiite proxy force. They say that despite the fact that UN resolution 1701 called for a total arms embargo against Hizbullah, the two rogue states have increased efforts over the past few days to supply more rockets and other weapons to their puppet militia force. This reality was behind the late Friday IDF commando raid deep into the Bekaa Valley near Syrian territory, which Lebanon called a violation of the ceasefire. Israeli officials shot back that it was Beirut that was violating the ceasefire by refusing to disarm Hizbullah fighters while turning a blind eye to Syria’s re-supply activities. Israeli military leaders have asked the government for permission to bomb any trucks suspected of carrying weapons into Lebanon, even though they acknowledged this could give Hizbullah an excuse to resume rocket attacks upon northern Israel. At the same time, the IDF says that a naval blockade of Lebanon—mainly designed to keep Syrian and Iranian military supplies from arriving by sea—will continue for at least the next few weeks. All this comes as attempts to set up a viable UN buffer force continue to move ahead at an extremely slow pace, due mainly to France’s last minute decision to barely participate in the international force.




IRAN IN VIEW



While focusing on the highly volatile situation in Lebanon, Israeli officials are also keeping a wary eye on dramatic developments in Iran. Senior IDF officers told Israeli reporters that the military is keeping close tabs on a huge Iranian military exercise taking place in nearly half of the Islamic country’s 30 provinces. Alarm bells rang Sunday when the extremist regime tested 10 missiles dubbed as “Lightning” in Farsi. Although relatively short range (estimated to be between 50 to 180 miles), the missiles could hit many parts of Israel if fired from Lebanese or Syrian territory.



Officials also remain on alert over Iran’s declared intentions to give a “surprise” answer tomorrow to the UN demand that it halt its nuclear enrichment program. While internet sights have been abuzz with speculation that Iran might fire a nuclear tipped long-rang missile at Israel—due in part to President Ahmadinejad’s enigmatic statement that the sky over Jerusalem would “glow with light” on that date—most Israeli analysts strongly doubt that Iran is anywhere near that far along in its nuclear weapons program. Besides, that, Israel would undoubtedly respond by wiping out Iran with its own nuclear arsenal, known to be substantial, if undeclared. Personally I would not be surprised if Iran is preparing to test a nuclear device, as the Russian defense minister reportedly told his NATO colleagues already last December, and that this could be its August 22 “answer” to the United States and other nations. This might amount to a symbolic “glow” over Jerusalem in the minds of the Iranian Shiite extremists who rule the country, since everyone knows Iran’s ultimate aim is to annihilate the world’s only Jewish state and “liberate” Jerusalem from hated Zionist rule.



I will be giving my regular weekly report on events here in Israel and the region today on the Moody Broadcasting Network’s Prime Time America program, heard on radio stations across the country. The program begins at 5:00 PM EST, which is 21:00 GMT. It can also be accessed via their web site, www.mbn.org Thanks again to all who have expressed concern over my visa situation, which could potentially end my work in Israel after 26 years. I continue to receive valuable support from here and abroad over this issue, and will update you when there is substantial news about it. Meanwhile thanks for your prayers for a satisfactory outcome.




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DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived and worked in Israel since 1980.

HOLY WAR FOR THE PROMISED LAND (Broadman & Holman), his latest book, is an overview of the history of the Israel and of the bitter Arab-Israeli conflict that rages there, plus some autobiographical details about the author’s experiences living in the land since 1980. It especially examines the important role that militant Islam plays in the conflict.
ISRAEL IN CRISIS: WHAT LIES AHEAD? (Baker/Revell), which examines the political and biblical prospects for a regional attack upon Israel, settlement in the disputed territories, and related topics, is also available for purchase, along with an updated edition of his popular end-time novel, THE END OF DAYS (21st Century Press).
You may order these books at a special discount price by visiting his web site at www.ddolan.com, or by phoning toll free 888-890-6938 in North America, or by e mail at: resources@yourisraelconnection.org

DOLAN'S NEW DVD, "FOR ZION'S SAKE" is now available for purchase. Click the title under "BOOKSTORE" for more details.

TO RECEIVE THESE FREE ISRAEL UPDATES DIRECTLY, FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS BELOW. YOU WILL ONLY RECEIVE DAVID DOLAN'S UPDATE AND ANALYSIS INFORMATION FROM THIS ADDRESS. THE LIST WILL NOT BE TRADED OR SOLD.

TO SUBSCRIBE, go to: http://www.ddolan.com/subscribe.asp

[HeIsTruth]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

Personally I would not be surprised if Iran is preparing to test a nuclear device, as the Russian defense minister reportedly told his NATO colleagues already last December, and that this could be its August 22 “answer” to the United States and other nations. This might amount to a symbolic “glow” over Jerusalem in the minds of the Iranian Shiite extremists who rule the country, since everyone knows Iran’s ultimate aim is to annihilate the world’s only Jewish state and “liberate” Jerusalem from hated Zionist rule.

Hmm, I didn't think about this. What if Iran has a nuclear test tomorrow? What would the U.S. do? You can't attack them once they have shown they have nuclear capability. I think the world has dragged their feet on this issue and will pay the price.


Also, there were was a story last week of North Korea preparing for a test. What if Iran and North Korea both had a nuclear test tomorrow???

Where does that leave U.S. foreign policy?

_

[TomT]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

Where does that leave U.S. foreign policy?

In tatters - or pretty much where it is at the moment....

[Biblenuggetlady]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

Agreed Tom. And about the only time Iran came up in the news conference today, Bush said that the UNSC will have to act regarding Iran, and hopefully they would act quickly regarding more resolutions and sanctions. To me, it seems like the US has given up it's "world power status" and we are now part of the "world body political process". I would personally be surprised to see the US make any military moves anymore unless they are part of a UN/Nato contingency. I guess we (the US) have to become smaller, in order for God to become bigger, in Israel and the worlds eyes! Praise the Lord.

[Andy]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

New report from David...Part 1

Shalom from Jerusalem,

Below is my monthly Israel news review and analysis report covering events during August. It naturally focuses on the intense summer war with Hizbullah forces in Lebanon, and particularly on the political fallout here in Israel following the conflict’s inconclusive outcome. Ehud Olmert’s four month old government is under heavy pressure in the wake of the war, with its long-term survival now very much in doubt.

I am pleased to announce that my new DVD titled FOR ZION’S SAKE will be airing three times this autumn on the Sky Angel Two satellite channel, based in Florida. As per the networks request, I will be sending out a press release with full details a bit closer to the time of broadcast. The first airing is scheduled for Saturday evening, October 7 at 9:00 PM EST (the second evening of Succot), with additional screenings in November and December. Details will also be posted soon on my web site, www.ddolan.com You can also find information there (under “David’s Schedule) about a UK speaking tour sponsored by Christian Friends of Israel beginning on 21 September, followed by a short trip to the United States to speak at a Feast of Tabernacles conference in North Carolina.

THE COST OF WAR

It became increasingly apparent during August that Israel has moved into a new and frightening chapter in its long struggle to survive as a Jewish state in a sea of hostile Muslim countries. As the war with Hizbullah forces in Lebanon intensified, it was evident to most Israelis that the protracted Arab-Israeli conflict had formally mutated into an existential confrontation with at least a significant portion of the larger non-Arab Muslim world. For the first time since the 1967 Six Day War, tens of thousands of Israeli ground forces, including substantial reserve units, were sent into a battle that was not primarily the result of ongoing Palestinian demands for the withdrawal of “occupation forces” from Arab-claimed lands, and related issues like refugees and the re-division of Jerusalem. Instead, the core battle was over the very existence of a Jewish-led state in the mostly Muslim Middle East.

Israel’s latest war ended with a United Nations ceasefire on August 14. During the nearly five week conflict, Lebanese Hizbullah militia forces pummeled northern Israeli cities, towns and villages with unprecedented intensity, firing around 4,000 rockets—mostly supplied by Syria—during that time span. Nearly 1,000 landed inside heavily built up areas. Several hundred fell in the Upper Galilee town of Kiryat Shmona and in the coastal town of Nahariya, while 93 landed in Haifa and 81 in Tiberius. The rockets damaged or destroyed over 6,000 apartments and homes. Forty-three Israeli civilians, including over a dozen Arab Muslims, Christians and Druze, where killed during the massive rocket blitz. Over 4,000 others were hospitalized for injuries sustained in the attacks, 33 of them suffering permanent damage such as loss of eyesight, impaired hearing or loss of limbs, with another 68 people moderately wounded.

The IDF lost 116 regular and reserve soldiers during the conflict, over one-fourth of them in the last 70 hours of the 34 day war. Around 400 soldiers were wounded in action, many of them seriously. The two Israeli soldiers whose July 12 abduction triggered the conflict remained unaccounted for as the ceasefire went into effect.

The financial cost of the war was substantial as well. Hizbullah’s rocket assaults caused an estimated $400 million in direct property damage throughout northern Israel. With the northern third of the country virtually shut down for over one month, including 630 commercial factories and many hotels and other businesses, some $1.4 billion was lost to the economy. Overseas tourism cancellations stretching into next year will add millions more to that financial deficit. The actual cost of waging the war is estimated to have been around $500 million, said government economists.

Israeli jets responded to the daily rocket bombardments by carrying out several thousand bombing runs over many portions of Lebanon. Some 1,800 buildings were partially or completely destroyed, a majority of them in Beirut’s southern Shiite suburbs. The Lebanese government said that well over 1,000 citizens were killed in the war, claiming that most of them were civilians. Israeli officials said at least one third of the Lebanese casualties were Hizbullah militiamen and their commanders, some of whom were said to be from Iran. The IDF said that 309 Hizbullah rocket launchers were destroyed during the conflict, along with 33 tunnels constructed by the rogue militia in the six years following Israel’s May 2000 withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Additional tunnels, some of them quite elaborate, were discovered and destroyed after the ceasefire went into effect.

STANDOFF

Although the IDF has fought against the Shiite militants many times before, beginning soon after the militia was formed under Syrian and Iranian tutelage in late 1982, the main declared Hizbullah grievance in the 1980s and 90s was Israel’s military control over portions of Lebanese territory. The private militia group claimed that the July 12th cross border infiltration which sparked the latest conflict, which left eight Israeli soldiers dead and two others kidnapped, was also at least partially designed to help “liberate” the Shaba Farms area, a tiny strip of border territory that both Syria and Lebanon claim as their own. However, given that the United Nations certified that Israeli troops had pulled out of all Lebanese territory in May 2000, and that the Lebanese government had signed off on that position, it has been clear to the Israeli government and public for some time that Hizbullah’s real goals in heavily arming for war were far more insidious than just obtaining control over a tiny patch of disputed land along the international border.

As fighting intensified in late July and continued into August, war-weary Israelis were forced to acknowledge the jarring fact that for the first time in its 58 year history, the Jewish state had actually come under attack from a non-Arab Muslim country—Iran—whose declared goal is to annihilate their country. It is certainly an historic truth that the non-Arab Soviet Union waged fierce combat against tiny Israel in a very real and effective manner stretching over several decades. Still, the Communist giant only did so via military and financial support doled out to Arab countries like Egypt and Syria. The Kremlin never directly called the military shots, nor actually commanded frontline Arab armies, even if its support was a crucial factor in the Arab countries decision to go to war in both 1967 and 1973. Nor did Soviet officials ever declare or expect that their assistance to Egypt and Syria would lead to Israel’s complete destruction. However Iran’s Shiite Muslim extremist leaders do openly proclaim that Hizbullah’s armed assaults, which Tehran is believed to have largely commanded, including ordering the July 12 border infiltration, are merely the opening shots in a jihad war which they are waging to ultimately cremate the detested Zionist state.

Like the Soviet Union, Iran needs frontline Arab allies to help it achieve its diabolic goal. And so a portion of the Lebanese public, backed by the Baathist police state regime based in Damascus, acts as Iran’s puppet surrogates. Israelis understand that if their remaining declared enemies were only Arabs located in Lebanon and Syria, along with the ill-led Palestinians residing all around them, it would be relatively easy to achieve a substantial military victory. But adding Iran to the mix sends Israeli government and military officials into fits of despair, considering that Iran is a growing regional superpower possessing vast oil reserves, led by an extremist regime that openly declares its undying determination to eliminate what the late Ayatollah Khomeini called, “the Zionist cancerous tumor in our midst.” Given the furious Islamic-based militancy displayed by Iran’s theocratic regime, and especially its dogged determination to acquire nuclear weapons, Israeli political and military leaders are slowly waking up to the fact that they are probably facing their most nefarious enemy ever—and that nearly 60 years after Israel miraculously reappeared on the world stage.

POST WAR TRAUMA

As I reported in last month’s news review, Hizbullah’s unprovoked cross border attack galvanized the nation in a way not seen since the start of the 1982 “Peace for Galilee” operation to push Yasser Arafat’s armed PLO forces away from the northern border. However after it became clear that the 1982 campaign would not be the quick and relatively easy one that was widely anticipated, public sentiment began to slowly turn against that war. In the latest conflict, it took barely one month before many politicians and commentators began to question many aspects of the war, especially how government and military leaders conducted it. Most of the controversy surrounding the original Lebanon war fell upon then Defense Minister Ariel Sharon. This time around, the arrows seem to be equally spilt between government and military leaders. In fact, some Israeli commentators say they seriously doubt that the Kadima-led government will survive the growing political firestorm.

Public discontent over how government and military officials handled the war bubbled to the surface soon after UN ceasefire resolution 1701 went into effect on the 10th of August. Just over one week later, Israel’s most respected media commentator, Amos Harel, wrote a scathing editorial sharply criticizing the government’s handling of the conflict. Under the title “Why Did These Soldiers Die?” the veteran Haaretz commentator focused on the fact that nearly one-forth of the war’s IDF casualties, some 32 men and one woman, perished in the 60 hours after the ceasefire resolution was approved at UN headquarters in New York.

Like many Israelis, Harel wondered why Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz ordered ground forces into the deadliest battles of the war just after Olmert publicly announced on Friday evening, August 7th, that his government would probably abide by the American and French-brokered ceasefire call. Harel’s conclusions were not welcomed by Israel’s political and military establishment. He wrote that blame should be shared by the Olmert government and by top and mid-range military leaders: “The political leadership’s understanding of the battlefront was minimal, but they still sought a victory to wave at the war's end; the General Staff demanded to ‘blow off built-up steam’ and allow the forces to move forward; while the division command was dying to show what it could do.” In the end, he wrote, the army was not able to achieve most of the government’s stated military goals due to the short time alloted for them to act before the ceasefire went into effect.

Many Israeli commentators and right-wing politicians echoed Harel in pointing to the fact that the Hizbullah war was fought by political leaders with little or no personal military experience. This led to growing calls for both Olmert and Peretz to immediately resign, along with Armed Forces Chief Dan Halutz, who was accussed af relying far too much on air power to achieve the war’s goals. The fact that he previously served as Israel’s Air Force commander was said by many to have colored his estimations of just how successful air strikes alone could be in decimating Hizbullah forces. Many military analysts criticized the fact that most of the air sorties were carried out north of the area where Hizbullah rockets were actually being fired daily at Israeli civilian centers. That many apartment buildings were struck in the southern suburbs of the capital city, most of them of questionable strategic value, was also criticized, with many saying the action only provided international media outlets with a plethora of damaging pictures to broadcast around the world.

Continued on part 2

[Andy]

Re: Mideast Crisis: By David Dolan

Part 2 from David...

THE BATTLE IS NOT WON

Both Olmert and Peretz confidently proclaimed early on in the conflict that Hizbullah’s offensive power would be quickly crushed by superior IDF forces. Such boasting was echoed by several senior IDF commanders. Many later admitted that their statements reflected an arrogance that was not matched by the facts on the ground. Just how deeply Hizbullah was and is entrenched in Lebanese society (with Shiite Muslims comprising an estimated 35% of the population; growing every year due to the relatively high Shiite birth rate compared to Sunni Muslims and Maronite Catholics) was apparently significantly underestimated by most Israeli political and military leaders, charged various commentators. And given that the militia’s main ground forces were stationed in southern Lebanon, and not in Beirut or the eastern Bekaa Valley, it was clear to many military experts early on in the conflict that a major ground operation north of the international border was unavoidable, even if this was apparently not immediately evident to Olmert, Peretz and Halutz.

Defense Minister Peretz claimed after the ceasefire went into effect that military leaders had not adequately briefed him on the overall Hizbullah threat, nor on the strength of the nefarious group. This was dismissed by senior IDF officers, who said they had pointed out to him when he assumed office last April that mushrooming Hizbullah militia forces could not be allowed to gather strength forever without being confronted by Israel. The controversial Peretz statement only added to calls for him to either resign or be quickly replaced by someone with greater military experience and comprehension, especially in light of official security assessments that renewed fighting with Hizbullah and/or Syrian forces could break out again at any time, and amid growing indications that an Israeli military showdown with Iran itself may be drawing near, given Tehran’s late August announcement that it will defy the international community and carry on with its nuclear program. Meanwhile Peretz is facing a new internal challenge to his position as Labour party leader, led by disgruntled Labour Knesset members Ami Ayalon and former Tel Aviv University President Avishai Braverman.

In an attempt to pacify calls for his resignation, Ehud Olmert agreed in mid-August to set up an investigative committee headed by one of his political cronies, former IDF chief of staff Amnon Lipkin-Shahak. After that move was deemed insufficient by many critics, the Premier indicated he might turn the matter over to a formal State Commission of Inquiry, headed by a Supreme Court judge, which would be empowered to subpoena witnesses and issue binding judicial conclusions. However this was considered politically risky by senior Kadima politicians, who feared that their new centrist party might disintegrate if such a state commission came down hard on the government’s performance, as most expect it would. This prompted Olmert to announce on August 28th that he would not establish a fully independent official state commission, but would instead appoint a beefed up panel to look into the government’s handling of the war, and another to investigate the IDF leadership’s role. The decision was immediately criticized as insufficient by many opposition politicians, along with several Labour party Knesset members.

Kadima is already reeling from the fact that its leader has felt it politically necessary to back away from the main issue that the party ran on in last March’s national election—pushing forward with unilateral civilian uprootings from several dozen Jewish communities located inside of Judaism’s biblical heartland, Judea and Samaria. Opinion polls now show that, in the wake or this summer’s massive rocket assaults from southern Lebanon and continuing Palestinian Kassam strikes from the evacuated Gaza Strip, a vast majority of Israeli voters are horrified at the likely prospect that such abandoned land would become new launching pads for hostile rocket fire on Israel’s nearby central cities. Olmert quickly realized that he would be finished politically if he clung to his controversial withdrawal plan in the face of such understandable public anxiety.

Many political analysts are pointing out that it is unprecedented for an Israeli government that is barely four months old to face so many calls for its dissolution, coming from all political spectrums. That the calls reflect widespread public sentiment became evident when several opinion polls were released in late August. One survey broadcast by Israel’s Channel Two showed that the right-wing Likud party and the immigrant Yisrael Beiteinu party would more than double their current Knesset strength if elections were held today, with each capturing 24 seats. That is a huge jump from the 12 seat won by the Likud last March, and the 11 secured by Yisrael Beiteinu. Olmert’s ruling Kadima party would drop from 29 seats to just 14, and the once dominant Labour party from 19 to an embarrassing 9 seats. But another poll found that Labour could capture 20 seats if the inexperienced Peretz were replaced by popular former IDF chief of staff Moshe Ya’alon. An Israel Radio survey showed that 29% of the public preferred Ya’alon as defense minister, while 17% named Kadima politician and former defense minister Shaul Mofaz. Only 5% named Peretz as their first choice. All of the opinion polls projected that right of center parties would capture a clear majority of the Knesset’s 120 seats if elections were held now, whoever led the parties.

IS THE WAR REALLY OVER?

The question of who is ruling Israel and commanding IDF military forces is obviously highly important even in relatively tranquil times. But with the situation still incredibly unstable in southern Lebanon—where over 20,000 IDF soldiers are facing an unknown, but substantial number of armed Hizbullah militiamen—military analysts warn that full-scale fighting could erupt at any time. This is all the more likely given that the Lebanese government is refusing to order its army to disarm Hizbullah fighters, augmented by the fact that the expanded 15,000 man European-led UNIFIL force is taking much longer than anticipated to assemble and move to the region (many analysts said the slow pace was precisely due to the fact that hundreds of Hizbullah fighters, who are intensely hostile to the West, remain in place with their weapons).

Israeli military analysts say the greatest threat to the tenuous ceasefire is Syria and Iran’s refusal to halt illegal weapons shipments to their proxy Lebanese force. Although UN resolution 1701 calls for such arms transfers to be frozen, the Assad regime in Damascus is balking at Israel’s demand that UN forces assist Lebanese army troops in searching all trucks, ships and aircraft entering Lebanese territory for contraband weapons. This came after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad announced in a fiery post-war speech that he is ready to take back the Golan Heights by force if necessary, probably signaling that Israel’s next military challenge—and one that is far more daunting than the battle with Lebanese Hizbullah fighters—is already looming on the horizon.

Although the future looks incredibly bleak in the crisis-plagued Middle East, the God of Israel still rules over all the earth. He knows the plans and purposes that He has for His people, to give us a much brighter future and abundant hope: “It is He who reveals the profound and hidden things; He knows what is in the darkness, and the light dwells with Him” (Daniel 2:22).


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived and worked in Israel since 1980.

HOLY WAR FOR THE PROMISED LAND (Broadman & Holman), his latest book, is an overview of the history of the Israel and of the bitter Arab-Israeli conflict that rages there, plus some autobiographical details about the author’s experiences living in the land since 1980. It especially examines the important role that militant Islam plays in the conflict.
ISRAEL IN CRISIS: WHAT LIES AHEAD? (Baker/Revell), which examines the political and biblical prospects for a regional attack upon Israel, settlement in the disputed territories, and related topics, is also available for purchase, along with an updated edition of his popular end-time novel, THE END OF DAYS (21st Century Press).
You may order these books at a special discount price by visiting his web site at www.ddolan.com, or by phoning toll free 888-890-6938 in North America, or by e mail at: resources@yourisraelconnection.org

David Dolan’s new DVD, "FOR ZION'S SAKE" is now available for purchase. Go to his web site and click the DVD title under "BOOKSTORE" for more details.

TO RECEIVE THESE FREE ISRAEL UPDATES DIRECTLY, FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS BELOW. YOU WILL ONLY RECEIVE DAVID DOLAN'S UPDATE AND ANALYSIS INFORMATION FROM THIS ADDRESS. THE LIST WILL NOT BE TRADED OR SOLD.

TO SUBSCRIBE, go to: http://www.ddolan.com/subscribe.asp