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The good news is AR1678 is already past the cone that would lead to a direct blast of earth. It's nearing the edge of the solar disk. Could let loose a massive flare but would only cause some minor satellite issues.
Yes. Cycle 24 has been a much smaller cycle than expected and it is thought that cycle 25 will be almost none existent.
We can see large x flares in weak solar cycles...and there is some research that indicates weaker cycles produce fewer x flares...but the ones they do produce are more powerful than other more intense cycles.
I kinda think of this as blowing up 100 sticks of dynamite 10 sticks at a time...or 100 all at once.
So apparently weather.com is making more of this than it's worth? That's interesting as I've never known them to really be alarmists before.
When a CME breaks loose, it has to be pointed at earth for there to be a significant impact. Once the angle between the earth and sun and flare goes past about 45 degrees, it loses its impacts.
This sunspot is about to rotate out of the FOV which means any CME would be directed at a 90 degree angle away from us. It would have some minor impacts on GPS and HF com but that's about it (and that is assuming it was a massive X flare).
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