Art Cashin Warning For Next Eight Weeks

[Issachar]

Hmm ... if the embed isn't working for this video ( ) the URL is here:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1218115845&play=1

Issachar

[Guest]

Re: Art Cashin Warning For Next Eight Weeks

Okay, I watched the video but he didn't say a whole lot of anything. Of course I don't speak their language. Is he saying something bad or something good, or just more craziness in the markets?

[Issachar]

Re: Art Cashin Warning For Next Eight Weeks

In a nutshell? I think he was thinking much more down in the markets than he wanted to actually say to the public. This guy has a decent track record. He's saying that things could really go crazy over the next eight weeks or so. The 'vix' was way up yesterday ... that is a volatility index on the Chicago exchange and you don't really want that going way up. But it is.

Just watchin' ....
Issachar

[Guest]

Re: Art Cashin Warning For Next Eight Weeks

In a nutshell? I think he was thinking much more down in the markets than he wanted to actually say to the public. This guy has a decent track record. He's saying that things could really go crazy over the next eight weeks or so. The 'vix' was way up yesterday ... that is a volatility index on the Chicago exchange and you don't really want that going way up. But it is.

Oh, okay....I understand now. He didn't want to panic anyone but still was trying to warn hoping people would pick up on it. Does that sound right?

So what do you think about this and how it will affect us over the next few weeks?

[Guest]

Re: Art Cashin Warning For Next Eight Weeks

Well Issachar, we're waiting.....
C'mon it's 6am, where are you?

[Issachar]

Re: Art Cashin Warning For Next Eight Weeks

Imho, in the next eight weeks, the markets will go up or down or stay about the same.

Seriously ... I think that the uptick in the markets in the past 4 or 5 months is due to some companies reporting some earnings. But, it is NOT due to more production due to increasing demand for product; i.e. increased sales but rather, due to massive lay-offs and other cutbacks due to lower demand. A company will show increased earnings either way ... increase in sales or lower operating costs. The latter is what is happening.

Some of us pointed out over the past several (so called) 'boom' years that the 'boom' was due to debt. People were purchasing, companies were producing to meet that demand and in order to meet that demand they had to hire more people which gave more people the income needed ... to buy more with money? No, the income needed to buy more by increasing their debt levels. Just as they were increasing their debt load, so too the government; local, state and federal level, were increasing their debt. But because most people were able to use debt to buy more 'stuff' and thereby satisfy the flesh (this whole thing is really spiritual in essence), they didn't care what the government was doing. In ancient Rome there was a saying about 'bread and circuses'. The idea was that as long as the masses had food and entertainment, the government could do pretty much as it pleased. There's always someone going about trying to point out what the leadership is doing; pointing and saying, "Look!" .. but they are usually booed by the folks enjoying their bread and circuses.

Coming fast though was a head on collision with a freight train (maybe when comin' at ya it would more aptly be called a fright train?). That freight train was 'credit limit'. The concern was that people would no longer be able to increase their debt, would consequently cut back on spending which would slow demand for products, factories would cut back on production which would result in lay-offs which would result in even less spending and on down the spiral would go. So they come up with this insidious scheme. Quick note: I bought my first house in 1977; had been married 5.5 years, three children ... typical back then was 20% down and monthly payment not to exceed 25% of gross monthly income. Jump ahead to the early 21st century ... 0% down. Income? umm .. not at present ... OK! Here's your house loan! Congrats! We even 'helped' you out by giving you an ARM that starts at 1.2% interest. To another: Here is your 'interest only' loan! Enjoy you new house ..... for 4-6 years until the reset happens and your monthly payment doubles or triples .... heh-heh ... Now that you all have these incredibly VALUABLE houses, take out cash from them. They are giant ATM's! wooo hoooo! No more are equity loans only for investment such as college (presumably resulting in more income), adding on a room (increase value of the house) or starting up a small business ... now they are for spending (as opposed to investing) on such things as a car or that 48K pickup truck that looks cool but you dare not put anything in the bed and scratch it or vacations, etc. Why save for such things when the ATM you live in can fund it?!

You get the picture ... the pseudo wealth of the past 8 or so 'boom' years had no real substance. Any structure built with no substance under it will collapse. I'm saying that since the whole U.S. economy is built on a fiat system (a system backed by mood and feelings), since Roosevelt took us part way off of the gold standard (1933) and Nixon totally took us off of it (August 15, 1971), the economy, along with the dominance the U.S. has in the world because of it's economy, will collapse. The national debt, state debt, corporate debt and personal debt has risen to unprecedented levels; VERY unsustainable levels. The good news since we are on a fiat system, is that they can use fiat to keep it going; the bad news is that because we're on a fiat system, they have to find ways to keep it going. The really bad news, from a worldly perspective (as Christians, we are in another kingdom and not so affected by all this), is that there is a limit to how long they can keep a fiat system going via fiat. In 1991 Larry Burkett wrote a book called "The Coming Economic Earthquake" (see quote at end of this post). In the book he felt that the U.S., would face serious economic consequences of debt by ... I think 1995, if the government didn't do three things. They didn't. Nothing much happened though in '95. That is because he nor anyone else could imagine fiat debt levels rising to TRILLIONS of dollars and (now) TWO TRILLION dollar DEFICITS! But at some point, the dollar will collapse. In a fiat system, there is no choice about that. I've written here extensively over the years about 'collapse' being intrinsic to fiat 'currency'. ALL of history shows that. There is NO exception to that rule. There can't be because it opposes God's rules of economics (in part; unjust weights and measures (fiat) -Proverbs 20:23).

So I don't know when a collapse will occur, but occur it must. History and God's Word do not lie. Whether the recession we're in right now is just "yet another temporary downturn" or the beginning of THE downturn ... only our Lord knows. But I can tell you, there is GLOBAL economic unrest going on. In past downturns, there were some nations affected and others not so much and it resulted in things turning around. But now, with essentially global economic integration, there are some serious cracks in the foundation.

In 1991, our late cofounder Larry Burkett wrote The Coming Economic Earthquake, warning of the dangers of the ever-growing appetite for debt by our society and federal government alike. Although a best seller and helpful to many who heeded his advice, he received harsh criticism for his failure to peg the event to a date certain. Many dismissed his work as “too simplistic” and unsubstantiated by economic models. Others painted him as a “doom and gloomer,” especially in light of the robust economic growth of the 90s. Larry remained humble towards his critics, stating he was not attempting to be a prophet but was only making Christians aware of their need to apply God’s Word. He said that even if the events he outlined in his book did not occur, the reader would be better off for following the advice that God gave for our benefit.

Interestingly, Larry also warned in his best seller Business by the Book that 2008 could be a “horrendous year” for the economy as the baby boomers began to retire.1 At that time, he had no awareness of the toxic shock that would be brought about by the massive run-up of household debt through sub-prime mortgage loans.

more

Issachar

[N1095A]

Re: Art Cashin Warning For Next Eight Weeks

Art ... Cash ... in?

Is there an unintended pun there?

[Issachar]

Re: Art Cashin Warning For Next Eight Weeks

In the Larry Burkett (went to be with the Lord on Independence Day (U.S.) of 2003) quote at the end of post #6, he mentions:

... Larry also warned in his best seller Business by the Book that 2008 could be a “horrendous year” for the economy as the baby boomers began to retire.1 At that time, he had no awareness of the toxic shock that would be brought about by the massive run-up of household debt through sub-prime mortgage loans.

And even before that, there were others warning about the start of the retirement of the so called 'baby boomers'.

A couple of half minute clips from the Heritage Foundation:




Issachar, believes that Social Security is a ponzi scheme

[Guest]

Re: Art Cashin Warning For Next Eight Weeks

I like Art! He watches everything before predicting, including the solar eclipse earlier and now Ramadan! He hinted last week that something might happen during this period geopolitically. I'm guessing his sources are suspecting terrorism but that is just from watching his body language - I'm an expert now from watching Oreilly and "Lie to Me"!

Of course we are approaching the end of the 3rd quarter (September) when all time lows in the market have occurred historically! So, I think all of these things are making him skittish! However, we must realize IMO this is all manipulated and thus the guys and girls (being politically correct) that control the global economy will move money where ever they wish to control the markets! We do not have a free market economy driven by free buying and selling IMO!

This is one reason I have not bought gold even though the naysayers have been saying it was going to $2,000 per ounce tomorrow, forever! Yesterday it was up to $950 and that got some excited! I learned the hard way by buying silver back in the 80's when the Hunt brothers ran the price up and then the bottom dropped out of it and it took twenty years to get back up to the level where I could sell it and almost break even!

So, in theory, I agree with you Issachar but the problem is that past market evaluation may not take into account the control being used! And of course, the Big Art Cashin in the Sky has it all under control, anyway and we shouldn't worry about it - observe it yes and try not to act in stupid ways (outside of God's Will)! The bottom line, which my wife and I have used for almost 40 years is to buy only what you need and not what you want and if you don't have the cash to buy it (except for a house valued at only so many times your income), do without. Our kids hated not being able to keep up with some of their rich friends, growing up, but now realize that we were right and are not totally in debt like most, as a result! And I am not saying it is wrong to be in debt as long as it is not from making wrong choices (outside of God's Will)! God may want us poor so we can continue to praise His Name anyway! There is no better witness! He tells us, contrary to what the socialists say, that the poor will ALWAYS be with us! Witness of the poor is harder IMO than being martyred for your faith because the killed are immediately with the Lord! Whereas, the poor or disabled have to get up everyday and try to survive for 70 to 80 years! There again God gift's us for whatever trials He places on us and what do we want to do but brag about our ability to persevere! We (me especially) are pathetic in not giving ALL of the glory to God but somehow want to take credit for His Will! I just bragged about saving money and it was God that gifted me!!! None of us deserve salvation - what grace is all about!

Bottom line, read the newspapers and the internet but realize God is in control and we are just observers, strangers, visitors, etc. Issachar I know you know this better than all of us and are just trying to be a watchman with the abilities that God has gifted you with! But just as God controls things, He has allowed others to control things on earth (Satan included) and things may not be what they seem IMO!