What it should be ...

[N1095A]

as I said, even a Saudi said oil should be between $35 and $65 (when it was on its way to $147).

However, after 9/11, they showed what gas could be sold for: 89 cents a gallong.

I would accept $1,29 no problem with inflation (oil at $46 or so yesterday).

It is currently $1.36.9 at the QuikTrip tonight.

But Ramen noodles still $1.88/12, beef or chicken, at Wal-Mart (yeah, got another box of each tonight).

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OIL SHOCK PREDICTION: $25

http://www.drudgereport.com/

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide

U.S. Stocks Drop, Led by GM; Exxon Falls on $25 Crude Forecast

[N1095A]

Re: What it should be ...

Crude oil tumbled 6.8 percent to $43.59 a barrel in New York, the lowest price since January 2005. It has plunged 70 percent since the closing record of $145.29 set in July and may fall below $25 next year if the recession that’s slashing fuel demand around the world spreads to China, Francisco Blanch, commodity strategist at Merrill Lynch, wrote in a report today.

[Guest]

Re: What it should be ...

I agree that groceries are still up.
Some of the things we buy are a bit expensive now.
Even at Walmart!

[Andy]

Re: What it should be ...

It's so hard to comprehend that oil/gasoline being so cheap now is a sign of a bad economy.

Strange days.

[Issachar]

Re: What it should be ...

This is nice to have cheaper gasoline right now, but that in conjunction with a lot of other things is making me think that we might be into or getting into, deflation. That is what the '30's was. Today it might be the '30's on steroids.

Issachar

[Guest]

Re: What it should be ...

A co-worker did make an observation on the way to work a few weeks ago.
He said "wow, look at all the SUV's out on the road, their owners must be celebrating."
It was almost out of the blue, we started seeing Suburban's, Expeditions, etc.
Weird....

[N1095A]

Re: What it should be ...

Artificially inflated to an alarming degree in a very short period and now they who robbed are getting their just desserts as the crash happens.

I wouldn't go out and buy an SUV or pickup truck unless I absolutely had to have it for work or farm work.

One major crisis in the Middle East and they'll be sticking it to us again. Even though most of our oil comes from ................ Canada.

And most of our oil from Alaska? Sold ........ elsewhere.

$25 is 17.7% of $147. The whole thing was always a scam.

[Guest]

Re: What it should be ...

We have finally come down in gas prices and last night at the Speedway I saw it was $1.59 a gallon.

I have to agree with you Gregstien about the price of groceries, ouch! I went to Jewel to pick up a few things and believe me, it was a FEW things. Seemed like everything I touched started at $5.00 even lunch meat for sandwiches. Dean's ice cream was $6.98 for 1.75 quarts and Oscar Meyer bacon was $6.98 a package. Needless to say most of my groceries come from Aldi's now. I only bought a pizza for dinner and that was $7+

We really do have to rethink how we buy groceries and what we eat. Convenience foods are way to expensive, plus they are not that healthy anyway. So back to the basics of meat and potatoes.

[VickiV]

Re: What it should be ...

The cheapest here for regular is $1.83 at Walmart with a gift card.

I expect prices to go up again after the end of the month.
There's been much said about the pirates in the Indian Ocean attacking and taking the oil tankers. Saudia Arabia is now saying they will have to go around Cape Horn, which not only adds much distance to their trip but the route is very treacherous. So this, if nothing else, is a little hint that prices will be going up again.

[JudyAnn]

Re: What it should be ...

Gas has been going down .03 or more every day this past week.....last night it was $1.69. I honestly didn't think we would ever see it below $2.00.

It would be great if the grocery prices started to go down but I don't expect fresh produce to be lower this year.....
They were harvesting some lettuce fields yesterday.......the harvest is plenty but the workers are few....

[Issachar]

Re: What it should be ...

$25 is 17.7% of $147. The whole thing was always a scam.

I doubt that they can make a profit at $25. Like I said back when these prices started crashing, the price will come down to where they can't make a profit and then they'll be eligible for gov't bailouts "because they're too important to let them fail" and then the gov't will have ownership in the oil industry too. First banking/mortgage, then insurance, more than ever .. manufacturing and eventually energy. Somewhere along the line, communications; i.e. cell phones, etc. as they at some point, won't make a profit either and will need a bailout. That is why the central bankers create these deflationary scenerios ... just like the Great Depression era of the '30's .. the gov't becomes the "savior" of the economy. It's the road to fascism/socialism ... NWO.

Issachar, thinking that deflation is no more "accidental" than is inflation.

[N1095A]

Re: What it should be ...

I doubt that they can make a profit at $25.

I'll bet they can. But how they report it and play the accounting game is another matter.

But it won't be a record $10 billion dollars per quarter. I'm certain of that.

However gas at $1.36.9 ($1.37) / $46 and then * $25 comes out to about 74 cents per gallon. Of course that varies with taxes so it's not a pure calculation. It was $25 not all that long ago and they made enough money the Saudis were buying real estate in California, Rolls-Royces, built several major cities all over the Middle East and purchased 5% of Citibank.

Obvously my gas is cheaper than most of yours but IF we hit $25/bbl I'd look for a target price of about 91 cents to $1.09 per gallon in my area. Adjust yours accordingly.

Food *will* come down as the costs are transferred. There are a lot of middle-men and that's why it is slow to come down.

They choke on oil. When the music stops it shuts virtually everything down. They have to keep pumping, keep storing, keep filling tankers, keep unloading, keep selling. Stop anything, especially the end of the chain, selling, and the whole machine backs up.

We don't need hybrid fuels for aircraft. Just converting 50%-75% of our domestic auto/truck fleet to electric/hydrogen/LP gas would do the trick.

This is the result of making the U.S. a "world" economy which I knew was a very bad idea in 1993 when I first heard it. You can look at the per capita income of most nations and we were far ahead. Off shoring, etc (don't get me started) took us here. Plus fraud and scams like this one.

[Issachar]

Re: What it should be ...

It was $25 not all that long ago ...

Last time it was $25 that $25 bought more. Taking inflation into account, I doubt they make a profit at $25

Issachar

[N1095A]

Re: What it should be ...

Nah. Depends upon how they play the accounting game. Oh they'll scream like a stuck pig. **Nothing** has gone up like oil costs. They'd only lose money if they were buying their own oil from 6 months ago. HOWEVER, if they bet long on oil they may be losing a huge amount in speculation.

Tough cookies.

Here it was $27/bbl or so in 2003. (End of first quarter). Yes, they made money back then too. A lot of it.



Even at he beginning of 2004 it looks around $35/bbl. Which, frankly, is what I'd consider a reasonable price for a barrel of oil. And this is light sweet, which I believe is one of the higher grades.

And look at Jan, 1999. $16 / $17/bbl. 2002 - $20/bbl. About October, 2002, the low peak shows $25 or so again.

There's a lot of games companies play with accounting. I ought to know. I worked for one of the largest accounting firms in the U.S.A. I wasn't an accountant per se, but I was on that side of the house. One of my associates saved a guy something like $50,000/yr on a $500,000 income he paid himself out of his small company (LEGALLY) because the guy didn't know how to set up his pay to take full advantage of tax laws. All legal.

But he was one of the honest ones. Enron, World Com, Arthur Anderson (I was not part of them) showed how many crooks there were.

And in a famous case, Phar-Mor's officer and an auditor conspired to report $80 million in fake inventory. Yes. And they got caught (duh).

But companies can move inventory around, move it in some years to take advantage of losses / profits, "invest" in other areas. It's a very complicated game, even if they're doing it all legally.

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If it does hit $25, they'll lay off, restructure, perhaps even merge a couple. But gasoline will sell quite well at $1.10/gal and they'll all keep making money. Like the rest of us, they'll get by on less. They may even ask for a "bailout". Don't give them one.

[Issachar]

Re: What it should be ...

Question: What is making prices come down? (please don't say less demand) Whatever it is, what would make it stop at $25? Believing it is a mechanism for gov't control of the energy industry now that they have a firm hold on banking, I'm sticking to it artificially coming down to a level where they lose money and need a bailout. Regardless of what we think of bailouts, a bailout they will get. Zero doubt. Part of the terms of the bailout, imho, will be significant gov't control of the industry. The NWO will be a combination of fascism and socialism. It is under construction as we speak. We are, at this very time in history, seeing the forming/manifestation of a one world order. They've worked a long time for this and barring the Lord blocking it if it is not yet time, it will continue at some sort of an exponential rate. That is why it seems like so much is happening so fast these days; we're somewhere on the sharp upturn of the curve. The lackadaisical part of the curve is behind us.

sorry I only have a couple minutes here and there the next few days ...

Issachar