Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

[Issachar]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Look at the year 2000 on the chart here.

Also note the ramp up starting around 1971-72 when Mr. Nixon took the US all the way off of the gold standard and threw the US totally into a fiat system.

Issachar

[N1095A]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Was there a national debt when Bill Clinton left office?

Yes, approximately $6 Trillion. By budget cuts, it resulted in a surplus in the fiscal years 1999 and 2000.

[N1095A]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

That is why the budget "surplus" is such a joke.

Yes, but then you weren't accruing add'l wild spending debt that was caused by exceeding revenues. Just like your checking account would work. Only the interest, which is where you have to start anyways. This start of fiscal responsibility was good for the dollar too.

[Jay]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Don't worry, we have lots of options for the US Government no matter how big the debt grows, here are three of the options:

1. Levy (more) taxes
2. Refinance by further borrowing
3. Monetize by issuing more currency (which typically results in hyperinflation).

FYI
From Wikipedia: Four signs that an economy may be in hyperinflation:

1. The general population prefers to keep its wealth in non-monetary assets or in a relatively stable foreign currency. Amounts of local currency held are immediately invested to maintain purchasing power.

2. The general population regards monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a relatively stable foreign currency. Prices may be quoted in that foreign currency.

3. Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power during the credit period, even if the period is short.

4. Interest rates, wages and prices are linked to a price index and the cumulative inflation rate over three years approaches, or exceeds, 100%.