Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

[Issachar]

Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a "perfect storm" for consumers as the housing slump spreads.

In a report "Recession Coming" released today, the bank's US team said the credit crunch had started to inflict serious damage on US companies.

"Slipping sales and tightening credit are pushing companies into liquidation mode, especially in motor vehicles," it said.

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Issachar

[RollingAlong]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Additional comments from the article:

“Like Goldman Sachs, and Lehman Brothers, the bank no longer believes Asia and Europe will come to the rescue as America slows.”

“Morgan Stanley is the first major Wall Street bank to warn that it is may now be too late to stop a recession,…..”

This boat (US economy) has taken on too much water (indebtedness). She is listing beyond the point of being uprighted.

[N1095A]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

National debt will probably hit $10 Trillion by at least the end of 2008 if not sooner.

If so, that will be the $4 Trillion (from another thread) over the $6 Trillion figure that was 6 years ago (or 7 years prior at the end of 2008).

[RollingAlong]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Someone posted recently where our Nat’l debt increases every minute by $1 million.

[Issachar]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

If so, that will be the $4 Trillion (from another thread) over the $6 Trillion figure that was 6 years ago (or 7 years prior at the end of 2008).

I'm not positive what all that is saying, but the rate of debt increase is exponential. No president can stop it given how it must now be serviced. On president may make it grow a bit faster and another a bit slower, but grow it will. That is intrinsic to fiat systems. The US's got it's fiat kick off play in 1913 and came into full fruition with President Nixon on August 15, 1971.

Issachar

[N1095A]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Growing it 67% in 7 years takes some real accomplishment, given that there were 225 years that racked up $6 trillion before.

It's not actually exponential, to be mathematically precise, but what you are saying, correctly, in essence, is that the rate it worsens increases with the amount. That was true, except for 1999 and 2000 when there was a surplus. The rate of debt asbolutely will grow, of course, 4% on $6 trillion costs $240 billion per year, while 4% on 9 trillion costs $360 billion per year.

Here's where lower raters actually reduce the amount of money the gov't has to pay on the debt (i.e., that not already locked in). Savings accounts wind up pay 3% or so, though, for the average U.S. savings account or bond consumer.

He spends like a drunken sailor, and about $1 trillion or more has essentially gone to Iraq, an unnecessary war. And that's 1/3 in just that one item, of the $3 trillion he's already racked up.

[Issachar]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

I have a hunch we are more on the same page than you might think. It'd be great to sit down with you for a few hours. (I say the "same page" thing because of your comment the other day along the lines of us agreeing on something .... )

Growing it 67% in 7 years takes some real accomplishment, given that there were 225 years that racked up $6 trillion before.

Well, keep in mind that in 1981 it hit one trillion for the first time and in the past 27 years, it's gone up to over nine trillion. That's a 900% increase.

It's not actually exponential, to be mathematically precise, ...

That is true. But it is far closer to exponential than linear.

Issachar

[Glorify Him]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Pleeeeze--I was having such a good day! These reality checks are real downers, especially for someone with a home on the market that is listed below what we paid for it.

[Issachar]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Well GH, you have two choices:
1.) Don't read my posts because I can almost guarantee that any economic news for some time now is not going to be good news or
2.) Remember that our well being is in Christ.

I look in a mirror as I type this because in my circumstances right now, I HAVE to be focused on #2. Big time. Hey GH, is that house in Sandusky? Can I rent it if I get kicked out of here? I don't like the homeless prospect in the middle of Winter.

Issachar

[N1095A]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

I would be tempted to call it a parabolic curve, except those eventually turn backwards. It's more like a decreasing radius. Yes, the largest jumps, from $1 trillion to $2.7 trillion occurred under Reagan's 8 years, and now from $6 rillion to probably $10 trillion under Bush. So much for "smaller government" and them being "anti-tax and spend". They are anti-tax for their elite buddies and have no problem spending record deficits and the truth is in the numbers.

[Issachar]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Ya ... like I always say ... the Dems raise taxes to fund their excessive spending and even occassionally make the books look like there was a "surplus" and the Reps raise the national debt to fund their excessive spending. Of course both go up under any administration, but the above is a general rule of thumb. Tax increases are where the current workers pay and debt increases are where the next generation(s) pay. It's all taxes with different names and appearances.

Issachar

[N1095A]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

I fear what the crime rate will be in this country when this thing collapses.

[DUB & EVE]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Was there a national debt when Bill Clinton left office?

[Guest]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

I fear what the crime rate will be in this country when this thing collapses.

It's already begun in Mecklenburg County, NC

Ihttp://www.charlotte.com/171/story/401705.html

"I feel like I'm living in an old ghetto," says Roscoe Henderson, who has watched his 4-year-old Peachtree Hills neighborhood crumble. "You never know when somebody's going to come kick your door in. And it seems like the city is just ignoring our problems."
... excerpt

[Issachar]

Re: Morgan Stanley - Full US Recession Alert

Was there a national debt when Bill Clinton left office?

Yes. Six trillion dollars. That is why the budget "surplus" is such a joke.

Let's say you owed ... $35,000 dollars on a loan but your monthly budget was .... $3,000 and your monthly income was $3,000. Then you get a raise and find yourself with $200 left over at the end of each month. Would it really be a surplus with that 35K outstanding debt? The 200 could go towards it and get it paid down sooner.

Well, Mr. Clinton's "raise" was that huge tax increase he brought about in 1993 and with the national debt so high, that extra revenue could have been put towards it. The trouble is, that "surplus" wouldn't even begin to cover the annual interest on the debt, let alone pay it down.

Like I say, taxes, national debt ...... it's all the same.

Issachar